Here on this page is presented a tentative launch manifest to demonstrate the magnitude of the challenge of just getting lots of people on their way.

This manifest is prepared on the basis of several assumptions:

  1. Using Dragon V2 for the first three team launches of Lunar settlers atop a Falcon Heavy, and assuming the development of a 35-person sleeper ship for follow on launches.
  2. It will take a minimum of 12 months for the Lunar Settlement to generate sufficient crops to supply not only the settlement, but the settlers going beyond the moon.
  3. Working within the constraints shown on the Launch Logistics Worksheet for travel from Earth’s vicinity to Mars, and then to Jupiter, dates are coordinated based on the worksheet’s launch month and travel time required.
  4. Launches from #4 on, using higher capacity ships launched on Falcon Heavy to carry settlers to EML-2, where the teams, and their components are assembled for launch to Mars, and later, Jupiter.

Financials are not calculated, though if one assumes that SpaceX succeeds in the development of their reusable launchers, and those launches approximate 1/10 of current stated launch pricing (i.e. FH @ $90 million), this would suggest a launch cost of near $10 million each, or based on these 18 launches:  $180 million – to send over 500 human settlers to three destinations over a five year period.  Remember this estimate is only launch costs, not any of the other equipment, supplies, or vehicles.

At first glance, the realities of Celestial Mechanics offered by the worksheet, and implemented in the timeline below suggest that promises of large numbers of humans migrating off planet may be premature.  However, this timeline, if funded, could put over 500 people on three (3) destinations in just six (6) years.  You try the math. Just my own guess-timating, it looks like Mr. Elon Musk’s hope for a million people on Mars in a century just might be doable.

Month Launch From Earth Launch Date Crew Destination
0 1 Mar 2025 7 Moon
6 2 Oct 2025 7 Moon
12 3 Mar 2026 7 Moon
Using a 35 passenger Sleeper Ship
18 4 Jun 2026 35 Moon
24 5 Dec 2026 35 Moon
30 6 Jun 2027 35 Moon
Departure from Lunar Orbit, Drop past Earth and out to Mars
36 Dec 2027 70 Mars
39 7 Mar 2028 35 Moon
42 8 Jun 2028 35 Moon
45 9 Sep 2028 35 Moon
48 10 Dec 2028 35 Moon
51 11 Mar 2029 35 Moon
54 12 Jun 2029 35 Moon
59 13 Nov 2029 35 Moon
62 14 Feb 2030 35 Moon
Departure from Lunar Orbit, Drop past Earth and out to Mars
63 Sep 2024 140 Mars
60 15 Nov 2024 35  Moon
60 16 Feb 2024 35  Moon
60 17 May 2024 35  Moon
60 18 Aug 2024 35  Moon
Departure from Lunar Orbit, Drop past Earth and out to Jupiter
66 Sep 2025 140 Jupiter